城市配送系统动力学建模及配送政策对城市配送效率的影响分析

Dynamics Modeling of Urban Distribution System and Influence of Distribution Policy on Urban Distribution Efficiency

为准确研究配送相关政策对配送效率的影响,通过分析城市配送相关各因素的影响机理,构建了城市配送系统动力学模型,分析了模型的系统边界与系统各要素相互之间的反馈关系,以此建立因果关系图与系统流图,探究城市配送政策与城市配送系统效率间的影响关系与作用机理,为城市配送系统的研究发掘出新的思路与方法。根据某市历年配送数据对模型进行了有效性验证和仿真分析,表明试点工程对配送业主营收入有一定促进作用,但对配送效率影响效果不明显,交通限行存在一定的负面效果,而新能源政策可以较明显的提高配送效率,进而提出了相对应的政策与建议。

In order to accurately study the impact of related policies on distribution efficiency,the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of various factors related to urban distribution,constructs the dynamics model of the urban distribution system,and studies the feedback relationship between the system boundary and the various elements of the system.In this way,it establishes the causal relationship diagram and the flow diagram of the system,explores the influence relationship and working mechanism of the urban distribution policy and the efficiency of the urban distribution system.Next,according to the distribution data of a certain city over the years,the model has been validated and simulated,concluding that pilot project has certain promotion effect on the profit of the distribution industry,but not so much on distribution efficiency;the traffic restriction has certain negative effects;while the new energy policy can rather remarkably improve distribution efficiency.At the end,the corresponding policies and suggestions are put forward.