中国综合交通运输体系碳排放影响因素研究

Research on Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions of China's Comprehensive Transportation System

建立了基于中国综合交通运输体系碳排放影响因素分解模型的LMDI I(Log-Mean Divisia Index Method I)算法,将我国综合交通运输体系划分为公路、铁路、国内水运、国内民航四种方式,利用我国2003-2015年相关数据,对我国综合交通运输体系碳排放变化影响因素进行分解分析。研究结果表明:2003-2015年间,运输强度Y和交通运输结构S为主要的综合交通运输体系碳排放促进因素,交通运输能耗强度R为主要的抑制因素;R自2006年以来对我国综合交通运输体系碳排放有由抑制转为促进的趋势,而Y和S自2006年以来的情况则相反。对我国综合交通运输体系碳排放变化影响因素的分解分析为我国综合交通运输体系碳减排政策和措施的制定提供了依据。

In this paper,we established the LMDI I(Log-Mean Divisia Index Method I) algorithm based on the decomposition model of the carbon emissions influence factors of China’s comprehensive transportation system.According to the algorithm,the comprehensive transportation system in China is divided into four modes:highway,railway,domestic water transport and domestic civil aviation.Using the relevant data of China from 2003 to 2015,we decomposed and analyzed the factors affecting the carbon emissions changes of China’s comprehensive transportation system and found that between 2003 and 2015,transportation intensity and transportation structure are the main driving factors behind the carbon emissions of the comprehensive transportation system,while transportation energy intensity is the main inhibitor;however,since 2006,transportation energy intensity shows the tendency to shift from inhibition to promotion,while the former two show the exact opposite.