高速公路流量预测风险分析

Risk assessment in freeway volume forecast

应用工程风险分析理论,分析了影响崇明越江通道流量预测的风险因素及对单因素的风险衡量,认为崇明的经济发展前景及越江西线的建设与否对交通流量预测的影响最大。采用AHP法与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的方法,得出交通流量预测的概率分布曲线。

Based on normal engineer risk assessment,the risk assessment of freeway volume forecast was studied through a real case.The concrete risks were identified and measured.The results show that the most important risk are the economic perspective.The dispersion curve of the volume forecast was presented with AHP and MonteCarlo simulation.