身份焦虑与偏好伪装——2016年美国大选期间民调偏差的社会心理机制研究

Identity Anxiety and Preference Falsification——Research on Polls Deviation and Its Social Psychological Mechanism during the 2016 US Election

2016年美国大选颠覆了美国主流媒体和民调机构的预期,特朗普在外界一片唱衰声中爆冷击败希拉里成功入主白宫。出乎意料的选举结果引发了美国国内甚至国际社会的热烈讨论。对于此次大选民调出现偏差的原因,目前的相关研究仍主要集中于选举人团制度的不合理性及民意调查运作过程的不科学性两方面。值得注意的是,既有研究忽略了特朗普的支持率在选举期间和实际结果之间存在较大差距这一重要事实。从选民个体的心理因素出发,可以发现特朗普的胜选有着相当坚实的民意基础。美国白人中下层民众在20世纪中后期以资本为主导的全球化进程中,由于财富分配不均、传统文化价值观受到冲击、族裔矛盾加剧个体的不安全感而产生了经济、文化和安全层面多元的身份焦虑,这些深受焦虑之苦的中下层白人构成了助推特朗普当选美国总统的重要力量。而民调之所以未能准确预测其胜选,原因在于明确表达支持特朗普所带来的或假想的社会压力使部分选民进行了偏好伪装。偏好伪装现象在国际社会中广泛存在,这使得研究者或民意调查机构等行为体通过调查方法来预测和解释社会趋势变得更加复杂和困难,也促使我们对西方民主进程进行反思。

The 2016 US presidential election subverted the expectations of the mainstream media and polling agencies in the United States,with Donald Trump winning the presidency against Hillary Clinton in an underdog race.The unexpected election results have sparked heated discussions in the United States and even in the international community.As for the reasons of the polls deviation of this election,the current research results are mainly focused on the problems of the electoral college and the unscientific operation of the poll.It is worth noting that existing research ignores the important fact that there is a large gap between Trump’s support rate during the election period and actual results.Considering the psychological factors of individual voters,it can be found that trump’s victory has a fairly solid public opinion foundation.In the process of globalization,the American people,especially the lower and middle class whites,are facing challenges such as unequal distribution of wealth,impact on traditional cultural values,and intensification of ethnic conflicts.These challenges have triggered public identity anxiety in terms of economy,culture,and security.This sentiment has become an important reason why the whites from the middle and lower class support Trump.The reason why the polls failed to predict Trump’s victory accurately was that voters disguised their true preferences for fear of social pressure.Preference falsification is widespread within the international community,which makes it more complicated and difficult for researchers and poll institutions to predict and explain social trends through survey methods.It also prompts us to rethink western democratic processes.