摘要
In this paper, taking railway flood in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an example, the dynamics mechanism of railway flood has been studied by using Chaotic Theory. During study, some nonlinear features of railway flood, such as correlation dimension D2 and Kolomogorov entropy K, are analyzed based on time-series of railway flood in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Results show: time-series distribution of railway flood has some characteristics of Chaos dynamic system, and the variation of railway flood frequency is a definite low-dimension Chaotic attractor. The average length of Tp(Tp = 15d) calculated in this paper, which shows the time of forecasting by this Chaotic dynamic system, is close to the reality.
In this paper, taking railway flood in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an example, the dynamics mechanism of railway flood has been studied by using Chaotic Theory. During study, some nonlinear features of railway flood, such as correlation dimension D2 and Kolomogorov entropy K, are analyzed based on time-series of railway flood in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Results show: time-series distribution of railway flood has some characteristics of Chaos dynamic system, and the variation of railway flood frequency is a definite low-dimension Chaotic attractor. The average length of Tp(Tp = 15d) calculated in this paper, which shows the time of forecasting by this Chaotic dynamic system, is close to the reality.
基金
Supponed by world Bank Project (Disaster Reduction in china) (NoA3) and"Xibuzhiguang"Project(Prevention of Railway Flood in xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge)(98013010)
