北京市大气污染与城区居民死亡率关系的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in Beijing

为定量评价北京市大气污染对居民每日疾病死亡率的影响 ,运用时间 -序列分析方法 ,控制了流感、季节等混杂因素的影响后 ,对北京市主要大气污染物CO、SO2 、NOX、TSP、PM10 与居民相应疾病死亡率的相关关系进行了定量评价。以呼吸系统疾病、循环系统疾病、冠心病、慢性阻塞性肺病和消化系统肿瘤疾病死亡人数分别为因变量 ,大气污染物浓度和平均温度、湿度为自变量 ,进行了泊松回归分析。单变量分析结果表明 ,除TSP对冠心病死亡率的影响无显著意义外 ,大气中CO、SO2 、NOX 、TSP浓度与呼吸系统、心脑血管疾病、慢性阻塞性肺病和冠心病死亡率之间的正相关关系均有显著意义 ,而多因素泊松回归得到的暴露 -反应关系模型显示 ,SO2 浓度每提高 10 0 μg m3,呼吸系统、循环系统、冠心病和慢性阻塞性肺病疾病死亡率分别增加 4 2 1%、3 97%、10 68%和 19 2 2 % ;总悬浮颗粒物每增加 10 0 μg m3 ,呼吸系统疾病死亡率增加 3 19% ,循环系统死亡率增加 0 62 %。

To quantitively evaluate the associations be tween ambient air pollutant and daily mortality of Beijing and to supply the sci entific bases for formulating control measures. Air pollutants including CO,SO 2,NO X,TSP,PM 10 . time series analysis Poisson regression was used to evaluate the relationship between cause-specific deaths and air pollutant, con sidering the potential confounding factors such as seasonal and long-term patte rns, meteorological factors (air temperature, air humidity), as well as adjustin g the influence of flu epidemics in winter of 1998. The results showed that in single-factor Po isson regression analysis, there is a significant positive correlation between t he four pollutants and daily mortality except for the relationship between TSP a nd coronary heart disease deaths. In multi-factor Poisson regression analysis, when SO 2 increase in 100μg/m 3, respiratory deaths, cardiovascular and cereb ro-vascular deaths, coronary heart disease deaths and chronic obstructive pulmo nary deaths increased by 4 21%, 3 97%, 10 68%, 19 22% respectively. Meanwhil e, each 100μg/m 3 increase in TSP associated with 3 19% increase in the respi ratory deaths and 0 62% increase in the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deat hs. It is suggested that air pollution is a risk factor for health and an increa se of air pollution level might lead to a raise in daily mortality.