日元汇率对中国出口的影响机制

The Effect of Yen's Volatility on China's Export

文章通过历史数据分析发现 ,日元贬值有损于中日双边贸易的增长 ,并且日元贬值使我国从日本进口的增长速度下降是由日元汇率和日本出口的特殊关系决定的 ;日元贬值影响我国对亚洲地区的出口 ;日元贬值降低我国出口产品的国际竞争力。经过统计分析发现 ,日元兑美元汇率对我国出口的回归系数为 - 0 .5、滞后期为 5至 10个月 ,说明日元贬值通过以上三个途径影响我国出口。

Based on the historical data, in this paper, it is discovered that the depreciation of yen harms Sino Japanese bilateral trade.The trade flow from Japan to China is determined by the special relation between exchange rate of yen and the export from Japan. It also affects the exports of China to other Asian countries; and reduces the international competence of made-in-China products in the world market. The regression coefficient of the exchange rate between Japanese yen to US dollar is-0.5, lagging 5 to 10 months, which verifies the depreciation of yen induces the decrease of china's export throngh above ways. The empirical result is consistent with the practice of foreign trade in China.