中国入境旅游业发展态势的统计预测

Statistics And Forecasts Of Entry-China Tourism Tendency

本文首先建立中国入境旅游人数变化的模型 ,通过对模型的微分方程形式差分化离散处理 ,得一元二次函数 ,后进行回归分析得出模型中的参数估计 ,对模型进行分析得出中国入境旅游人数的上界及增长最快的时间段 ,对旅游企业经营管理和旅游行政管理部门制定政策 ,都有现实的指导意义。

After establishing a model of the quantity alternation of the entry-China tourists and obtaining a quadratic function in one unknown by calculating the finite difference and the straggling of the differentidal equation, then estimating the parameters of the model by regression analysis, we can obtain an upper bound and the fastest increasing time period of the quantity of entry-China tourists after analysing the model, which may offer a direction for the policy making of the tour operators and administrative departments.