同时考虑中介状态和失效相关时复杂抗震工程系统可靠性研究展望

Expectation of Study on Reliability of Complex Aseismic Engineering Systems with Intermediate State before Failure under Failure-dependence

讨论了工程结构与系统失效相关性和广义可靠性理论的研究现状,分析了应用研究中凸现的局限性。在此基础上,考虑结构和系统具有"安全-中介-失效"的三级工作模式,提出具有中介状态工程系统的可靠性向量概念;根据地震荷载的单一随机扰动作用特点,引入相关性参数,结合模系运算和条件概率提出较为精确又能简化处理的抗震工程系统失效相关性实用方法;建立同时考虑中介状态和失效相关时多级递阶和网络抗震工程系统的可靠性向量模型及其实用分析方法。该理论适用于土木、建筑、水利、机械等各种工程结构与系统。

The state of study on the failuredependence and generalized reliability theory for engineering structures and systems is discussed. Some limitations of applied researches are analyzed. On the basis of above, the notion is proposed that structures and systems take on three work modes i.e. safety, intermediate and failure states. The concept of reliability vector of engineering structures and systems with intermediate state is brought forward. According to characteristic of structures acted by a stochastically disturbing source of seismic load, a practical method for dealing with failuredependence of aseismic engineering systems is advanced by introducing dependence parameter, rules of norm operation and conditional probability. Some practical analysis methods for reliability vector of multilevel hierarchical and network aseismic engineering systems with intermediate state and failuredependence are established. 