灰色理论在清洁油品生产关键技术能力预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF GRAY THEORY TO PREDICTION OF KEY TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY FOR PRODUCING CLEAN FUEL OIL

加氢和重整作为生产清洁汽油、柴油的关键技术 ,在提高燃料油产品质量方面具有非常重要的作用。分析了加氢和重整能力预测的必要性和可行性 ,利用灰色理论建立了加氢精制和催化重整两种能力预测模型 ,并应用该模型对加氢精制和催化重整的未来发展能力进行了科学预测 ,给出了选用灰色预测模型的必要条件。由预测结果与实际情况的对比可以看出 ,应用灰色理论预测加氢和重整能力是可行的 。

Hydrogenation and reformation are the key technologies for producing clean gasoline and diesel oil and play the important roles for improving fuel oil quality. The necessity and feasibility for predicting capacities of hydrogenation and reformation were discussed. Two models for predicting the capacities of hydrogenation and reformation were established with gray theory. A scientific prediction for developing capacities of hydrogenation and reformation in the future was made. Comparison of predicted conclusion with the real situation shows that the predicted capacities of hydrogenation and reformation by the use of gray theory are feasible. The predicted results with the models can provide reference of decision-making for developing hydrogenation and reformation of refining enterprises in China National Petroleum Corporation in the future.