用环境应力参数对云南地区进行地震短临跟综监视

Dynamic Short-impending Tracing and Monitoring through Environmental Stress Parameters

利用云南区域台网数字化地震资料 ,直接用峰值速度估算环境应力参数的方法 ,实现了对云南及邻区环境应力场的短临实时跟综 ;获得了一大批中小地震的环境应力参数值 ;估算了云南不同地区长期环境应力场本底值。根据动态跟踪得出云南地区应力场强度在空间分布上是极不均匀的 ,总体表现出西部地区高、东部地区低的基本特征。从 2 0 0 2年 9月～ 2 0 0 3年 2月 ,逐月对云南及邻区发生的M≥ 3 0级地震进行预测及检验 。

Based on the digital data recorded by Yunnan Regional Network, the dynamic short-impending tracing of the environmental stress is realized by way of estimating environmental parameters with peak velocity. In this way, a great number of environmental stress values of mid-small earthquakes are acquired and the long-term average of environmental stress field in different areas in Yunnan is estimated. The dynamic tracing shows that the space distribution of the strength of stress field in Yunnan area is heterogeneous. That is, the strength of stress field is strong in the east part but weak in the west. Finally, the earthquakes with magnitudes over 3.0 occurred from September 2002 to February 2003 in Yunnan are checked by dynamic-tracing method and a conclusion is draw that the stronger earthquakes are apt to occur in the area with strong stress field.