公债的利率期限结构与成本管理

The Interest Rate Term Structure of Public Debt and Debt Cost Management

在理论上公债期限与公债利率是密切相关的,但是,由于流动性偏好理论的假设前提(有效市场假设)与现实不符,致使“公债期限越短、利息成本越低”的观点在实践中不一定成立。研究表明,只有政府在预测未来债券利率走势方面具有比市场更为优势的地位,它才能够通过期限选择降低债务成本。我国目前正满足这一要求,因而通过期限管理降低债务成本是完全可能的。

In term of cost management, the cost management of debt term is closely related to the Term Structure Theory of Interest Rates. Because underlying prerequisites of the Liquidity Preference Theory, Market Efficiency Hypothesis, are unrealistic, it is possible that the rule that the shorter debt term is, the lower interest cost doesn't hold. It is showed according to our research that only when governments are more advantageous than market participants in anticipating future trends of market rate, can it reduce interest cost by debt term design. As this situation in our country meets the demand, it is possible to reduce interest cost by debt term management.