Prediction of Trend between Water Environment Pollution of D Lake and Death Rate of Malignancy in Population

Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM (1, N) model for death rate of malignancy [ MR (t+1) =(9.9987E 1+5.0001E 2 +10.8994E 3+1.1114E 4+165.1029) ·e -0.0070t -9.9987E 1-5.0001E 2-10.8994E 3-1.1114E 4 ] and GM (1, 1) model for related factors [ E 1(t+1) =52.1214-46.9468e -0.0058t , E 2(t+1) =4.6114-4.5664e 0.0015t, E 3(t+1) =1.1389-1.1212e 0.0065t , E 4(t+1) = 554.5867-549.8006e 0.0016t ], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted.