豫北地区小麦纹枯病春季中短期流行预测的初步研究

Preliminary study on middle-short term epidemic forecasting model of wheat sharp eye-spot in spring in the north of Henan Province

通过分析小麦纹枯病拔节后危害期和抽白穗显症期2个阶段的流行特点,以豫北地区9个常栽品种为代表,利用多年定点系统调查数据,采取统计学和流行学相结合的方法,组建了感病品种与抗病品种2组中短期流行动态预测的回归模型和灰色系统预测模型.通过对比分析,对中短期小麦纹枯病预测式进行了初步检验和验证,证明该模型具有较高的精度.

By analysing the disease in joining stage and white ear stage , collecting disease data of nine wheat varieties in the north of Henan Province ,and coupling statistics and epidemic, two groups of regression models and gray system models were set up for middle-short term epidemic dynamic forecasting for resistant variety and susceptible variety. By contrast and analysis the models were proved to be highly accurate through preliminary verification of the ways predicting middle-short term wheat sharp eye-spot in the late stage of winter wheat.