伊拉克战争后的海湾局势及伊拉克石油工业重建前景——李绍先、安维华、方小美、陆如泉访谈录

The Gulf Situation in Postwar Iraq and Prospectsfor the Reconstruction of the Iraqi Oil Industry ——Interview with Li Shaoxian, An Weihua, Fang Xiaomeiand Lu Ruquan

The war in Iraq has been affecting Gulf countries intwo ways. The war has opened the gate for US襠emocratic reforms in the Middle East,?but as theUnited States implements this strategy of 襠emocraticreform,?the political situation in many Arabian countries,including Saudi Arabia, has become unstable. Thisuncertainty in the region cannot help but have an effecton the oil supply. However, there are not likely to be anysignificant changes taking place at the present time. Withthe exception of Venezuela, all OPEC member countriesare Muslim. To some extent, things that influence OPECinvolve the entire Muslin world. So what happensbetween the United States and the Muslin world is sureto have an effect on the international oil market.Inadequate social security, a delay in the occupationauthorities?return of power to the Iraqi people, and theuncertain role of the United Nations in Iraq are threefactors influencing postwar reconstruction in Iraq. Theincreasing build-up of resistance has seriously impairedthe reconstruction plans of the US occupation authorities.The United States has had to adjust its postwarreconstruction strategy in Iraq and has gone to the UnitedNations twice to seek help from the internationalcommunity. Undoubtedly, the United States will continueto play the dominant role in postwar reconstruction inIraq. Future relations between Iraq and OPEC will dependon the policies of the new administration in Iraq. But thecurrent situation in Iraq and the reactions from theinternational community and the Arabian world all seemto point to Iraq eventually returning to OPEC.

The war in Iraq has been affecting Gulf countries intwo ways. The war has opened the gate for US襠emocratic reforms in the Middle East,?but as theUnited States implements this strategy of 襠emocraticreform,?the political situation in many Arabian countries,including Saudi Arabia, has become unstable. Thisuncertainty in the region cannot help but have an effecton the oil supply. However, there are not likely to be anysignificant changes taking place at the present time. Withthe exception of Venezuela, all OPEC member countriesare Muslim. To some extent, things that influence OPECinvolve the entire Muslin world. So what happensbetween the United States and the Muslin world is sureto have an effect on the international oil market.Inadequate social security, a delay in the occupationauthorities?return of power to the Iraqi people, and theuncertain role of the United Nations in Iraq are threefactors influencing postwar reconstruction in Iraq. Theincreasing build-up of resistance has seriously impairedthe reconstruction plans of the US occupation authorities.The United States has had to adjust its postwarreconstruction strategy in Iraq and has gone to the UnitedNations twice to seek help from the internationalcommunity. Undoubtedly, the United States will continueto play the dominant role in postwar reconstruction inIraq. Future relations between Iraq and OPEC will dependon the policies of the new administration in Iraq. But thecurrent situation in Iraq and the reactions from theinternational community and the Arabian world all seemto point to Iraq eventually returning to OPEC.4T