Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

Poisson-Logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution and its application in designing of platform deck clearance

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性,本文推导出Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模式,并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵,解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。

This paper proposes a new bivariate probability model--PoissonLogistic compound extreme distribution. Because the routes and frequencies of Typhoons vary each year, the frequencies of Typhoons occurring in certain sea areas also vary from year to year. This may form a discrete distribution. Typhooninduced extreme sea environments can form some multivariate extreme distributions, A new kind of distribution--PoissonLogistic compound bivariate extreme distribution--is proposed in this paper. As one of the application example, a platform deck clearance is estimated by compounding typhooninduced maximum wave crest height and surge with 100yrs joint occurring return period (6.20+1.95)m instead of the traditional method which proposes to use the separate 100yrs return period wave crest height and surge (6.67+2.95)m in East China Sea.