大风浪海损事故的灰色关联分析

Grey relative analysis for the marine accidents in the heavy storm and wave

针对大风浪天气发生的海损事故,运用灰色系统理论中的关联分析方法,建立了大风浪海损事故与其致因间的关联矩阵,进行了事故原因的灰色关联分析,从定量的角度得出造成海损事故的主因是船舶不适航和人为因素,不仅有助于船长在大风浪天气开航前,根据船舶的航次特点,有针对性地做好防止海损事故发生的预防措施,提高船舶的适航性和大风浪中的操船水平,也为大风浪天气中的安全评估的评估体系的确定提供了科学的理论依据,具有实际意义和应用价值.

It is found that the relative matrix between the marine accidents in the heavy storm and wave and their causes by the method of relative analysis in the Grey system method. Based on the marine accidents statistics, the main causes are the unseaworthiness and the human element based on quantity analysis. The Grey relative analysis for the accident causes have been studied which not only helps the master to prevent the accident occurance and raises the seaworthiness and the level of manoeuvring skill based on the voyage characteristic before the beginning of the heavy storm ,but also offers the theory foundation for determining the safety assessment system in the heavy storm and wave.