大风风力预报准确率的统计特征分析

Statistical characters of the accuracy of gale forecasting

分析了使用气象 经济决策理论进行决策时对天气预报的新要求,以及得到反映天气预报与天气实况关系的共轭矩阵的必要性.在对大连气象台最近7年来大风等级的预报和大风等级实况的对比统计分析后,得到了反映两者之间关系的联合概率列联表,即所谓共轭矩阵.考虑到各月的共轭矩阵之间有一定的区别,而有的月份的共轭矩阵之间又有一定的相似性,因此,又利用模糊数学方法对各月的共轭矩阵进行了模糊聚类分析,得到了更为精确的分类共轭矩阵,为有关大风风力的气象 经济决策提供了必需的气象参数.

The new demands for weather forecast when using meteorological-economical decision making theory and the necessity of obtaining conjugate matrixes that shows the relation ship between weather forecasts and the actual conditions are analyzed. On the basis of comparatively statistical analysis of actual data of 7 years forecasts and actual conditions of gale degree from Dalian Observatory, the conjugate matrix has been got. Considering that there are some differences between conjugate matrixes of different months while some are similar, fuzzy clustering analysis has been used on monthly matrixes, so more accurate clustered conjugate matrixes have been got, that are necessary meteorological parameters for meteorological-economical decision making of gale degree concerning.