资本外逃对中国经济影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Capital Flight on China's Economy

本文采用相关分析法和最小二乘法分析了资本外逃对我国经济内外均衡主要指标的影响。研究表明:资本外逃对我国GDP、国内固定资产投资、消费者物价指数等指标的影响甚微,对未就业人数和财政赤字的影响较为显著,对外债年增加额、国际储备增加额、净出口额均有一定程度的影响。文章据此提出:我国的资本外逃主要是利用内外资的差别待遇进行套利的“过渡性”资本外逃,并提出了相应的政策建议。

In the paper, the author employs Correlation Test and OLS approach to estimate the effects of the capital flight on the major economic indicators of Chinese economy. The research results indicate that in China the capital flight has seldom effects on GDP, the total investment in fixed assets and the consumer prices, but significant effects on the unemployment and government finance deficit, and in some extent effects on the increase of the foreign debt, the increase of the foreign exchange reserve and the net value of the export and import. Based on the results mentioned above, the author points out that capital flight in China is an 'intermediate capital flight' which is conducted on the different treatment between the local and foreign investment to arbitrate the interest. At the end the some policy suggestions are given for the authority reference.