21世纪前10年上海市劳动力供给预测及相关政策调整

Predicting the Supply of Shanghai Laboer Force in the First Decade of the 21st Century & Regulating Corresponding Policies

21世纪前10年,上海市劳动力市场将主要表现为一种不均衡的状态,这种不均衡状态主要表现为上海自身劳动力供给不足与总的有效劳动力供给过剩,同时,劳动力供给结构与劳动力需求结构存在差异。本文对21世纪前10年劳动适龄人口、在校学生规模、外来劳动力人口、迁移人口以及老年就业人口的预测,这10年劳动力供给预测提供了依据。在此基础上,提出扩大在校学生规模,推进教育体系的改革;加强对外来劳动力人口及迁移人口规模的调控;调节老年人口的就业参与率等政策性建议。

In the first decade of the 21st century, the labor market of Shanghai is in unequilibrium. This unequilibrium is expressed by tightness of suply of labor and surplus of total effective labor of Shanghai. On the base of predicting the suitable age of labor, the number of students, extra-labor, population of migration and elder labor, the writer predicts supply of labor of Shanghai in the first 10 years of the 21st century, and suggests adjusting policy of supply of labor. For example, enlarge the scale of students, reform the system of education, control the scale of extra-labor and migration and adjust the rate of elder labor.