应用“按雨量站控制面积划分单元”预报宝珠寺洪水过程方法的尝试与探讨

Attempt and Probing on Flood Dureation Forecast in Baozhusi by “Dividng Element in Controlling Area of Each Rain Gage Station”

本文根据流域的产、汇流特性,总结了过去对该流域的洪水预报模型研究探索工作中的经验,并阐述“按雨量站控制面积划分单元”预报宝珠寺工程洪水过程的方法。通过历次洪峰流量实例检验拟合,其结果均得到了较为满意的预报精度。洪峰流量大于3000 m^3/8全部合格;一般洪水的合格率也均超过了94.0％以上。实践证明,在暴雨时空分布极不均匀的流域,分单元计算,尤其按雨量站控制面积划分单元,是解决洪水预报精度的一种有效途径。

According to the characteristics of runoff yield and concentration flow in tne basin,the paper sumarizes past experince in study of flood forecast model and describes the method for forecasting flood dureation in Baozhusi project by ' divi-ding element in controlling area of each rain-gage station' Verified by previous cases of peak flood discharge,the flood forecasting accurancy is (?)satisfactory. The results show that the cases with peak flood discharge more than 3000m^3/s are all qualified. The rate of quality for normal flood forecasting is more than 99%.It is confirmed that in the basin with uniform time and space distribution in storm, computation by element, espacially dividing element in controlling area of rain-gage station is a effective way to achive flood forecasting accurancy.