现有结构材料强度的统计推断

Statistical inference of material strength of existing structures

在现有结构的可靠性分析中,材料强度的不确定性既包含随机性,也包含未确知性,本文主要考虑后者.在形式上借用概率论和统计学的术语和方法,提出了现有结构材料强度的统计推断方法—Bayes小样本统计推断方法.该法综合利用了样本信息和设计先验信息,所依据的信息更为充足,可得到更为合理、有利的推断结果.

In the analyses of the reliability of existing structures, the uncertainty of material strength includes both stochastic and epistemic uncertainty. The latter will be taken into account in this paper. According to the points in literature , a method inferring the material strength of existing structures statically, i.e., the Bayes method based on small samples, is put forward in terms of probability and statistics. For as much as both the information of samples and prior knowledge in design are taken into account, which makes the information more adequate, the method could produce a more rational and beneficial result.