小冰期气候变化主控因子的模拟试验

Modelling Experiments of the Effects of Climatic Main Factors on the Climate Change of Little Ice Age

小冰期是距今最近,特征最明显的寒冷气候事件,对于研究世纪尺度气候变化具有重要意义. 过去的研究结果认为,太阳活动和火山活动的变化是小冰期气候变化的主要原因. 本文应用AGCM+SSiB模式分别试验了植被、太阳辐射和火山活动变化对小冰期温度、降水的影响,发现下垫面植被变化对小冰期温度变化影响的量级与太阳辐射和火山活动变化的作用相当,对降水的影响甚至超过太阳活动和火山活动变化的作用,说明对于世纪尺度的气候变化而言,下垫面植被的反馈作用不可忽略. 这对于深入理解小冰期气候变化的机理具有启迪作用,同时也为世纪尺度气候变化研究与气候情景预测提供了新的思路和方法.

The Little Ice Age is the latest and the most typical case of cold climate event, which is significant for the research of centennial climate change. The existing results of study show that, solar and volcanic activities are the main reasons for the climate change of Little Ice Age. In this paper, by using an AGCM+SSiB model, modeling experiments are made to understand the effects of the changes of solar radiation, volcanic dust, vegetation to the change of temperature and precipitation of LIA, respectively. The result shows that: the effect on LIA temperature of changing vegetation has the same scale to that of changing solar radiation and volcanic dust, while the effect on LIA precipitation of changing vegetation is greater than that of changing solar radiation and volcanic dust. This means the effect of vegetation feedback can抰 be neglected for centennial climate change. It is helpful to understand the mechanism of LIA climate change deeply, and it provides a new thought and method for research of centennial climate change and forecast of climatic scenario at the same time.