我国小冰期盛期的气候环境

The Climate of Little Ice Age Maximum in China

小冰期是距今最近的全球性冷气候事件,是至今研究历史时期气候与人类活动关系的重点时期,它曾对世界和我国的社会经济产生了重要影响. 本文根据我国近年来历史文献、冰芯、树轮、湖芯和石笋的高分辨率研究成果,结合部分国外的结果,对小冰期从高纬、高山地区向中纬、低海拔地区的发展过程,17世纪小冰期盛期大范围普遍的降温、降水变化和空间分布与季风的关系进行了讨论. 该成果和气候模拟的结果可进行检验,为全球增温背景上可能出现的冷波动提供历史相似型.

Little Ice Age (LIA) is the global cold event nearest to modern time, having an important effect on the development of society and economy throughout the world and in China. As a key period, it is now being used to explore the relationship between historical climate and human activity. Based on historical documents and the result of high resolution proxies (ice core, tree-ring, lake sediment, stalagmite) in recent years, incorporating with part of the foreign researches, several characteristics of LIA are discussed in this paper, including the climatic evolutional process from high-latitude and high-altitude regions to mid-latitude and low-altitude regions and how the monsoon influences the universal temperature decrease of wide range in 17century, the maximum of LIA, and the variation and distribution of precipitation. By verifying the climate simulations with these results, palaeo-analogue can be obtained to predict the cold oscillation in the global warming background.