国际工程投标决策中的盈亏平衡分析

Profit and Loss Balance Analysis of International Engineering Bidding Decision

面对国际工程市场众多的工程招标项目,承包商要想正确选择投标项目,做出正确的符合实际的投标决策,就必须对工程项目的各种不确定因素进行分析和预测,并通过计算、比较才能实现。文章介绍应用决策理论中的盈亏平衡分析法,建立关于承包商在独立投标项目决策中计算其保本点的数学模型,以及在互斥投标项目决策中计算其共有变量的数学模型,同时配以计算实例说明这些模型的建立与应用的方法。这些模型简单,计算方便,对承包商在国际工程市场中正确选择投标项目、正确做出投标决策具有一定的指导意义。

While facing variety of bidding projects in international engineering market, contractor must conduct analysis, prediction, calculation and comparison on various uncertain factors of project in order to correctly select bidding project and make reliable bidding decision. The paper introduces how to apply the profit and loss balance analysis of decision making theory to setting up the mathematic model to calculate the break even point in independent bidding project decision, and to setting up the mathematic model to calculate common variables in mutual exclusive bidding project decision. It demonstrates the modeling method and its application combined with calculation example. Because the models are simple and their calculations are easy, they would help contractor to correctly choose bidding project and make bidding decision in international engineering market.