季节周期回归模型在预测甲型肝炎发病率中的应用

目的 :应用季节时间序列资料分析方法—简易时间序列季节周期回归模型 ,对沈阳市 1 997～ 2 0 0 0年的甲型肝炎疫情报告资料进行分析 ,并应用该模型定量预测 2 0 0 3年的甲肝发病率。结论 :发病趋势为秋峰低于春峰 ,流行强度为散发 (除自然因素影响 )。

Objective:To establish a simple time-period regression model through analyzing the data of hepatitis A from 1997-2000 in Shenyang and use the model to predict the incident of Hepatitis A in 2003 Result:the incident peak of Hepatitis A in autumnal should be lower than that of spring And epidemiological feature should be sporadic occurrence