从人民币走出效应引观银行改革——访中国银行国际金融研究所研究员谭雅玲

To View the Banking Reform When Considering the Effects Caused by RMB Internationalization

2003年11月底,人民银行与香港特区签署了“人民币合作备忘录”,香港地区可以从2004年1月开始试行办理人民币存款、兑换、汇款和银行卡业务,使人民币走出去有了第一步,这对于缓解人民币压力具有积极意义。人民币在香港地区的有限度开放,是内地与香港经济金融融合的体现,充分表明“一国两制”特色经济的整体效应,为拉近内地与香港的合作、复苏和发展香港经济、活跃香港金融市场,以及为人民币国际化提供一个“平台”起到了积极的作用。 在总结积极意义的同时,我们也应看到在当前形势与条件下,人民币走向香港,有可能扩大人民币炒作空间。尤其是香港作为国际金融自由港,在外围国际金融投机氛围较重,汇率波动震荡。

Compared with the developed countries, our ability in financial central and administration is relatively limited. If RMB is first internationalized in HK, there will be many conflicts. So when considering this issue, we should take proficiency, profits and financial safety together into consideration. It will do good to the safety stability of a country for us to be more conservative when the international capital is more speculative. As to a developing country, which is developing and accumulating, it's more important for us to avoid the dangers but not to open to it under nowadays' special economical and financial condition. The main reason for this is that it's difficult for our strategy and markets to bear the dangers, we are still lack of experiences and our foundation is still weak.