小波气候突变的检测——应用范围及应注意的问题

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION USING WAVELET ANALYSIS:APPLICATION AND PROBLEMS

气候突变及其检测是气候变化研究的一个重要方面。气候突变的表现多种多样,目前也有许多检测气候突变的方法,但这些方法能否准确地检测出气候突变现象,他们的适用范围如何,是一个值得注意的问题。研究表明,尽管小波分析方法在检测序列突变方面具有严格的数学意义,但因为其检测到的是序列的均值突变,因此,在应用于气候突变的检测方面应该特别注意,数学上的严格并不等同于气候意义上的严格。因为某些情况下有些突变点并没有一定的气候意义。

The abrupt climatic change as well as its detection is one of the important issues in climate change study. The abrupt climatic changes exist in different ways. At present, there are many methods to detect them. However, do such methods can detect climate abrupt changes exactly? How to use them? Such questions are worth examining. In this paper, it is pointed out that although the wavelet analysis method can detect the abrupt changes exactly at the angle of mathematics, it just can detect the average value.Therefore, it is necessary to be more careful when the wavelet analysis method is used to detect the climate abrupt changes. The meaningful abrupt change in mathematics doesn't mean it is useful in climate. When the abrupt changes detected by wavelet method are used in climate analysis, we must take care,because some abrupt points may not be the real abrupt points in climate to some extent. 