基于流域复合生态系统阈值特性的动态赋权理论分析

Dynamic Weighting Analysis Theory on Basin Ecosystem with Threshold Value Index

本文基于流域开发复合生态环境系统累积环境效应的产生机理,以及系统的非线性动力学特征和累积环境效应反应过程特征曲线,提出了时序多指标决策理论模式,建立了复合生态环境效应的动态监测因子确定评判标度的量化模型。建立的动态决策理论是在决策空间和目标空间基础上,引入时间和空间参数,使决策过程与结果充分体现了时序特征,对生态系统规划决策和区域环境长期或不定期动态评估具有一定的指导。

Based on the forming mechanism of cumulative environment effect of compound ecosystem on development, and according to the nonlinear dynamic character of system and environmental effect-response process curve, the time-series multivariable decision- making mode was preferred. Owing to the weighting information came from objective environment and the greater the damage contribution to ecosystem, the higher the weighting value, at the same time, the environmental effect takes a kind of linear, serious sharpening trend and leave smoothing character. So in the paper based on the principle of 'loss-density curve' advanced by L. D. James, the relative importance weighting of water environment factor and exponent character a quantitative calibrating scale model on of dynamic monitoring factor of environmental effect was set up in light of factors threshold value. In the decision-making theoretical model time and space parameter is taken into account so for the decision-making process and results they also indicated the time series character. To any compound ecosystem, the preferred method possessed a certain directing for the system regulation and dynamic appraise with long-term or period ambiguity character. In the paper it was proved reasonable by means of theoretical analysis. In the other relative paper referenced of author, the dynamic decision-making model had been proved effective. However owing to the limitation of paper length only the factor weighting method on compound ecosystem with S curve trend was explained more detailed. In addition a great many long-term ecological factors was required to conform the threshold curve coefficient so in the paper the application example is not given.