大鹏湾夜光藻赤潮发生风险率的随机过程分析

A Stochastic Process Analysis for the Risk Rate of Noctlluca scientttlans Red Tide in Dapeng Bay

本文以春季大鹏湾夜光藻种群等间隔采样序列作为随机过程变量,运用随机过程理论,构造了夜光藻种群超阈值风险的成丛随机点过程复合模型,对夜光藻赤潮风险率的随机过程进行分析,得到夜光藻赤潮的风险估算,并进行拟优合度检验。认为研究结果对预测夜光藻赤潮发生具有一定的指导意义。

Taking the equal interval sample sequence of Noctiluca scienlillans in Dapeng Bay in spring as a stochastic process variable, the clustering Stochastic Point Process model for the risk of exceeding the threshold of Noctiluca scientillans was developed on the basis of the theory of stochastic process. A goodness of fit test was made after a stochastic process analysis and results estimate for the risk rate of Noctiluca scientillans red tide. It has a significance in predicting the occurring of the Noctiluca scientillans red tide.