摘要
论文运用格兰杰因果检验法,对陕西省1990至2013年产业结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,并运用回归分析法测算了陕西三次产业对经济增长的贡献率。研究表明:陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡协同关系,产业结构与经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。陕西第二产业对经济增长的贡献最大。根据陕西的产业基础和优势,陕西省应以第二产业为主导推动经济增长,加快第三产业的发展速度,继续保持第一产业在区域经济增长中的基础性地位。
Based on Granger Causality Test, this paper studies the relationship between industrial structures and economic growth ofShaanxi Province from 1990 to 2013. Meanwhile, the paper researches the contributions of three industrials to the economic growth in Shaanxi Province by regression analysis. The result indicates that there is a long-term balanced relation and a mutual Granger causality relationship between industrial structures and economic growth. It shows that the secondary industry has made the greatest contribution to economic growth. Given its industrial foundation and advantages, Shaanxi province should promote economic growth largely by second industry, speed up the development of the tertiary industry and maintain the foundational position of the primary industry in regional economic growth.
出处
《西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》
CSSCI
2015年第2期68-75,共8页
Journal of Xidian University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"新时期西部大开发中区域产业转移与产业升级问题研究"(10xjy0003)
陕西省社科基金项目"陕西省生产性服务业与制造业互动发展研究"(2014D36)
西安市科技计划软科学项目"资源环境双重约束西安承接产业转移研究"(SF1408-1)
中央高校基础科研业务费项目"产业和空间双维度下陕西省生产性服务业与制造业互动发展研究"(7214473601)
关键词
产业结构
经济增长
格兰杰因果检验
Industrial structure
Economic growth
Granger Causality Test