产业结构演进与经济增长关系的实证分析——以陕西省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth——A Case Study of Shaanxi Province

论文运用格兰杰因果检验法,对陕西省1990至2013年产业结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,并运用回归分析法测算了陕西三次产业对经济增长的贡献率。研究表明:陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡协同关系,产业结构与经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。陕西第二产业对经济增长的贡献最大。根据陕西的产业基础和优势,陕西省应以第二产业为主导推动经济增长,加快第三产业的发展速度,继续保持第一产业在区域经济增长中的基础性地位。

Based on Granger Causality Test, this paper studies the relationship between industrial structures and economic growth ofShaanxi Province from 1990 to 2013. Meanwhile, the paper researches the contributions of three industrials to the economic growth in Shaanxi Province by regression analysis. The result indicates that there is a long-term balanced relation and a mutual Granger causality relationship between industrial structures and economic growth. It shows that the secondary industry has made the greatest contribution to economic growth. Given its industrial foundation and advantages, Shaanxi province should promote economic growth largely by second industry, speed up the development of the tertiary industry and maintain the foundational position of the primary industry in regional economic growth.