陕西省-中亚五国贸易交往与产业结构变动关系实证研究

The Empirical Study on Bilateral Trade and Industrial Structure Changing between Shaanxi Province and the Five Central Asian

新丝绸之路经济带的战略实施,为陕西省拓展与中亚五国的经贸交往创造了有利环境。本文利用2004-2013年陕西省与中亚五国的贸易数据与产业数据,采用单位根检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验等计量方法对陕西与中亚五国的贸易和产业结构的关系进行实证研究。结论表明:陕西省与中亚五国之间的贸易交往对区域产业结构具有优化效应,区域产业结构的优化同时会改善双方的贸易结构。

Strategy implementation of the new Silk Road economic belt for Shanxi province to expand economic exchanges and trade with five central Asian countries has created favorable environment. The thesis, using the trade and industry data from 2004-2013 in Shanxi province and the five central Asian countries, and adopting the method of ADF test, co-integration test and Granger causality test, is to analyze the trade and industrial structure relationship between Shanxi and the five central Asian countries. The conclusion proves that the trade between them has an optimization effect on the regional industrial structure, and regional industrial structure optimization at the same time will improve the trade structure of both parties.