货币政策调控状态的周期变动研究

A Study on Periodic Changes of Monetary Policies

本文运用总需求方程缩减式模型和SVAR模型两种方法,分别估计了不含资产价格的货币条件指数和包含资产价格的金融状况指数。估计结果表明,金融状况指数相比货币条件指数能更好地描述中国货币政策调控的周期变动情况。根据指数,可以将2000年以来的中国货币金融环境划分为2000-2009年期间的货币宽松阶段和2010-2015年期间的货币紧缩阶段。同时,对比外汇本位资产以及实际准备金率(M2/外汇本位资产)变动状况,本文认为货币政策除主动调控外,也被动受制于外汇本位资产波动的外部约束,中央银行调控有待从被动适应向主动作为转变。

The paper uses aggregate demand equation curtailment model and SVAR model to estimate monetary conditions index(MCI) excluding the asset price and financial conditions index(FCI) including the asset price. Estimation results show that compared to MCI, FCI can better describe the periodic changes of China's monetary policy. According to the index, China's monetary and financial environment can be divided into two stages, namely monetary easing phase from 2009 to 2010 and monetary tightening phase from 2010 to 2015. At the same time, according to the changes of M2 / FX-based assets ratio, the paper argues that in addition to the active adjustment and control, monetary policies are also passive subject to the external constraints like FX-based assets fluctuations,so the central bank regulation should be transferred from the passive adaptation to the initiative action.