中国城镇化发展水平与居民体育彩票消费需求关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Development Level of Urbanization in China and Consumption Demand of Residents′ Sports Lottery

以2007—2016年全国31个省市(自治区)的面板数据为分析样本,运用Panel Data模型和相关计量方法,实证检验了我国城镇化发展水平与居民体育彩票消费需求的相互关系。结果发现:城镇化发展水平与居民体育彩票消费需求之间存在单向长期因果关系,短时期内城镇化发展水平与居民体育彩票消费需求也具有一定联动效应。城镇化发展水平对居民体育彩票消费需求具有显著的正向影响,控制变量(固定资产投资率、资本形成率)对其也具有显著的正向作用,但控制变量(城乡收入差距)则对居民体育彩票消费需求具有显著的负向影响,这些实证研究结论均与理论假设保持高度吻合。根据实证分析结果提出,缩小中西部地区城乡居民收入差距,促进城乡居民消费结构升级,加大中西部地区城镇化建设投资力度,提高城镇化进程中的就业承载能力,以全面推进我国城镇化发展水平,为居民体育彩票消费需求的增长提供保障。

Taking the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities(autonomous regions)in China from 2007 to 2016 as an analysis sample,the Panel Data model and related measurement methods were used to empirically examine the relationship between the level of urbanization in China and the consumer demand for sports lottery tickets.The results show that there is a one-way long-term causal relationship between the level of urbanization development and the consumer sports lottery consumption demand,and that the urbanization level and the residents sports lottery consumption demand also have a certain linkage effect in a short period of time.The development level of urbanization has a significant positive effect on the consumption demand of residents′sports lottery.The control variables(fixed asset investment rate and capital formation rate)also have a significant positive effect on them,but the control variables(urban-rural income gap)have a positive effect on residents.Sports lottery consumer demand has a significant negative impact,and these empirical research conclusions are highly consistent with theoretical assumptions.According to the empirical analysis,we propose to narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents in the central and western regions,promote the upgrading of the urban and rural residents′consumption structure,increase the investment in urbanization in the central and western regions,increase the employment carrying capacity in the process of urbanization,and comprehensively promote the development of urbanization in China.The level provides protection for the growth of consumer sports lottery consumer demand.