基于主成分分析法的公路客运量预测模型分析

Analysis of Highway Passenger Volume Forecasting Model based on Princi-pal Component Analysis Method

文章基于主成分分析的基本理论与模型,采用SPSS软件,对影响四川省公路客运量的相关因素进行主成分分析,克服多重共线性的问题,构建出四川省公路客运量预测模型。根据预测结果显示,该模型具有较高的精度,适用于影响因素指标较为明确的短期客运量预测,能够满足四川省目前公路客运量预测的需要,对四川地区的公路旅客运输发展也有着一定的指导作用,具有一定的科学性与有效性。

Based on the basic theories and models of principal component analysis,and by using SPSS software,this article conducted the principal component analysis on relevant factors affecting the Sichuan highway passenger volume,overcame the multicollinearity problem,and built the forecasting model of Sichuan highway passenger volume.According to the forecast results,this model has higher accuracy,suitable for the short-term passenger volume forecast with clearer influencing factors and index,it can meet the current highway passenger volume forecast needs in Sichuan,and it has some guiding role for highway passenger transport development in Sichuan region and is scientific and ef-fective.