辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统健康评价

Ecosystem Health Evaluation for Huitengxile Wind Farm Grassland

风能作为清洁的可再生能源,可以减少对化石燃料的依赖,因而近年来发展迅速。但风电设施在安装和运行过程中,评价其对环境产生的影响却尚未得到足够的重视。以1995、1999、2005、2010、2015年TM影像作为研究的基础数据源,采用GIS和RS技术,提取辉腾锡勒风电场草地5个时期的土地利用空间格局和指标信息,运用PSR框架模型,从压力、状态、响应3个方面选取10个评价指标构建辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统健康评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定各指标的权重,最后利用综合指数法(CEI)对研究区生态系统健康进行时空动态评价。结果表明,1995、1999、2005年生态系统健康指数为0.788 9、0.730 2、0.634 9,辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统状态为健康;2010、2015年生态系统健康指数为0.424 7、0.401 3,辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统状态处于亚健康状态。选取灰色系统理论预测模型为理论基础,建立辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统健康预测模型GM(1,1),经过对模型的精度检验,预测模型精度较为理想,因此采用GM(1,1)模型对研究区进行生态系统健康进行预测,结果表明,未来20a辉腾锡勒风电场草地生态系统健康指数分别为0.304 6、0.242 0、0.193 7、0.155 0,生态系统健康状况由一般病态向病态发展,应及时采取措施对研究区生态系统进行保护。

As a clean and renewable energy source,wind energy can reduce the reliance on fossil fuels,which has been developed rapidly in recent years.However,in the process of installation and operation little attention has been paid to the negative impact of wind power facilities on the environment.In this study,TM images of 1999,2005,1995,2010,2015 were used as the basic data resources,from which the land use spatial patter and index information of Huitengxile Wind Farm in Inner Mongolia were extracted by using GIS and RS technology.The PSR framework model was used to select 10 evaluation indexes from three aspects of pressure,state and response to construct the ecosystem health evaluation index system of the grassland ecosystem in the wind farm.The weight of each index was determined by AHP method,and the spatial and temporal dynamic evaluation of ecosystem health in the study area was carried out by comprehensive evaluation index(CEI).The results of the study showed that the ecosystem health indexes in 1995,1999 and2005 were 0.788 9,0.730 2 and 0.634 9,respectively,indicating that the wind farm grassland ecosystem status was healthy in these years.The ecosystem health indexes in 2010 and 2015 were 0.424 7 and0.401 3,respectively,which demonstrated that the wind farm grassland ecosystem status was sub-healthy.Finally,the grey system theory prediction model was selected as the theoretical basis,and the grassland ecosystem health prediction model GM(1,1)of the wind farm was established.After the accuracy test of the model,the accuracy of the prediction model was satisfactory.Therefore,the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the ecosystem health of the study area.The results showed that the grassland ecosystem health indexed of the wind farm in the next 20 years would be 0.304 6,0.242 0,0.193 7,0.155 0,respectively,which showed that the health status of the ecosystem would develop from general morbidity to morbidity,and measures should be taken in time to protect the ecosystem of the study area.