黄河源区河道冰凌特征变化及影响因素分析

Analysis of change and influence factor of ice regime character in Yellow River source area

黄河流域是我国凌汛灾害常发的地区,其中黄河源区是黄河上游凌情研究的空白区。为掌握该区域的凌情规律,对黄河沿-唐乃亥河段黄河沿、吉迈、玛曲3个常封断面的气象资料(1960-1987,2007-2011)和水文资料(1960-1987,2007-2011)进行研究,分析3个站的封河、开河日期以及冬季最大冰厚的变化规律,得出黄河源区封河从黄河沿附近开始向下游延伸,封河日期和开河日期均有推迟趋势,但总封冻天数在减少,冬季最大冰厚则各站趋势不同。通过对冬季气温、流量等因素进行分析,得出冬季累计负气温和冬季平均流量对于凌情主要特征的影响十分显著,可以作为预报因子进行进一步的研究。

The Yellow River is one of the most seriously-affected areas where the melting ice flood disas-ters often take place.The source area of the Yellow River is the research gap of ice-slush..Based on ana-lyzing the meteorological and hydrological data of the Yellow River source area, this paper selected three representative cross sections, summarized main characters of the ice regime.It then analyzed the dates of freeze-up and break-up of the river ,and the change rule of the largest ice thickness in winter.The result shows that the freeze-up goes from upstream to downstream.The dates have delaying trend,but the total number of freeze-up days is decreased and the largest ice thickness each station in winter is different. meanwhile the break-up process goes on the contrary.The main influence factors of ice regime are air tem-perature, average flow in winter witch can be taken as forcast factors to further research.