基于复杂适应系统理论的漳河上游水资源系统分析

Analysis of water resources system in upper reaches of Zhanghe river based complex adaptive system theory

漳河上游是典型的缺水流域,对流域水资源系统进行合理的分析是进行水资源优化配置的前提。本文基于复杂适应系统理论,分析了漳河上游水资源系统的基本特性和机制,并证明该系统是一个复杂适应系统。并在此分析框架下对系统演进的实现路径进行深入探索。最终得出:只要政府正确引导,用水户积极响应,系统必然朝着高效利用水资源的方向演进。

The upper reaches of Zhanghe River is a typical water scarcity basin.The rational analysis of water resources system is the premise of optimal allocation of water resources.This paper analyzed the basic characteristics and mechanisms of water resources system of upper reaches of Zhanghe River based on complex adaptive system ( CAS) theory and proved that it is a complex adaptive system.Based on this analysis framework,the paper made a deep exploration on evolution road.In the end, the results conclude that as long as government guides water users correctly and water users make active response, the system will inevitably evolve towards the direction of efficient utilization of water resources.