水资源约束下的区域产业结构优化研究

Research on optimization of regional industrial structure under restriction of water resources

在水资源总量控制约束下,产业结构如何调整是区域社会经济发展需要回答的科学问题。构建水资源动态投入产出模型,以GDP最大和用水总量最小为目标,以投入产出平衡、经济、水资源总量为约束,并且引进投资系数作为动态变化的依据,探讨用水和产业结构之间的关系。在分析江苏省水资源的现状和存在的问题的基础上,基于2010年水资源投入产出表构建多目标动态投入产出优化模型,通过MATLAB优化算法计算出江苏省2011-2015年各部门的经济产出值,进而通过产值和万元产值用水量之间的关系计算得出各部门的用水量,为未来的经济和水资源发展得出了量化的数据,为江苏省最严格水资源管理制度提供支撑。

Under the restriction of water resources ,how to adjust the industrial structure is the scientific question for regional social and economic development .Taking the greatest GDP and the least water quantity as object function , the paper constructed the input-output model of water resources dynamic . With the input-output balance , economy , the total amount of water resources constraint , and the intro-duce of investment coefficient as the dynamic basis , the paper investigated the relationship between water and industrial structure .On the basis of analyzing the situation of water resources and problems , by use of optimization model of the multi-objective dynamic input-output constructed by the water resources in-put-output table of Jiangsu Province in 2010 ,the paper calculated the economic output value of every de-partment in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2015 by MATLAB optimization algorithm .Through analyzing the relationship between output and Million yuan output value of water consumption ,the paper calculated the water quantity of every department .The result can supply quantitative data for economy development and exploiration of water resources in the future in Jiangsu province , and provide support for the most strict management system of water resources in Jiangsu province .