引黄工程水源地年径流量长期演变规律研究

Study on long-term evolution law of annual runoff in water source of Yellow river diversion project

利用Kendall秩次相关检验法、R/S分析法、游程分析法和马尔可夫过程分析法对中部引黄工程水源地年径流量长期演变规律进行分析。黄河河曲站年径流量时序在1978-2010年整个时段内呈现出显著的减少趋势,并且可以预测出未来河曲站的年径流量将继续呈较显著减少趋势;河曲站连丰、连平和连枯状态的出现概率都随连续年数的增加而减小;在长期丰枯演化过程中,偏枯年的重现时间最短,偏丰年的重现时间最长。中部引黄工程水源地年径流量未来呈较显著的减少趋势;在年径流长期丰枯演化过程中,出现偏枯年的可能性较大。本研究旨在为黄河水资源的可持续开发利用和中部引黄工程供需调节提供科学依据。

By use of Kendall trend test method , R/S analysis method , run-length analysis method and Markov process analysis method , the paper analyzed the long-term evolution law of annual runoff at the water source of central Yellow River diversion project .The annual runoff timing at Hequ station of the Yellow River showed a significant decreasing trend during the whole period 1978 to 2010 .According to the result,the runoff will continue to show a more significant decreasing trend in the future .The occur-rence probability of continuous multi-annual high flow state , normal flow state and low flow state de-creased with the increase of consecutive years .In the long-term evolution process of high and low state , the reproduce time of partial low flow year is the shortest and the reproduce time of partial high flow year is the longest .The annual runoff at water source of the central Yellow River diversion project will show a more significant decreasing trend in the future;In the process of high and low evolution of annual runoff , it is more likely to appear low flow year .The study can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable devel-opment and utilization of water resources on the Yellow River and the regulation of supply and demand of the central Yellow River diversion project .