平原河网堤防水文失事及应急预案研究

Research on hydrological failure of embankment of plain river network and emergency plan

利用河网水动力学模型模拟水位演变情况,通过可靠性分析计算水文失事概率,并结合保护区淹没损失,对堤防的水文失事风险进行评价。以苏州地区为例进行实证计算,得到现有调度方案下的水文失事概率及期望损失值。结果表明:堤防水文失事概率偏大,表现出对堤防加高应急的需求。本文在建立效益、成本、高度三者关系的基础上,通过最大化效益成本比得到堤防最优加高高度,为非汛期应急准备工作决策提供依据。

The paper used river hydrodynamic model to simulate the process of water level variation . Through the analysis of reliability to calculate hydrological failure probability , it combined with reserve drown value to evaluate embankment hydrologic crash risk .As an example for empirical calculation in Suzhou,it got hydrological accident probability and expected loss value under the existing scheduling scheme .The results showed that embankment hydrologic accident probability is so large that it shows the emergency demand for the increase of embankment height .The paper setup the base of relationship be-tween benefit , cost and height of embankment and got the optimal height of embankment heightening in order to provide the basis for the decision-making of emergency preparation during flood season .