清流河流域水文气象要素历史演变特征

Eevolution characteristics of history of hydrological and meteorological elements in Qingliu river basin

利用清流河流域1961-2012年的降水、气温、蒸发和径流量资料,采用数理统计方法系统诊断了不同尺度水文气象要素的历史演变特征。结果表明,近50年,清流河流域夏季气温呈非显著升高趋势,年与其它季节气温呈显著性升高趋势,在2007年之后,年和季节气温均存在下降的态势。年降水量和夏、冬季降水量呈增加趋势,春、秋季节降水量呈非显著性减少趋势。年水面蒸发量和除春季之外的季节水面蒸发量呈减少趋势,在清流河流域蒸发悖论现象突出。径流量的演变趋势与降水的演变特征总体一致,年和季节径流量均呈增加趋势,其中冬季径流量增加趋势显著;年和季节降水径流量之间的相关系数均在0.65以上,降水是径流量变化的主要驱动要素,因此,未来气候变化特别是降水变化对水资源的影响应引起足够的重视。

Based on the observed data of precipitation ,temperature, pan evaporation and runoff from1961 to 2012 ,the paper usedstatistical analysis method to investigate the evolution characteristics of hydro -me-teorological element at different temporal scales for the QingliuRivercatchment .The results indicate thatin recent 50 years from 1961 to 2010 , the temperature in summerpresented insignificant risingtrendwhilean-nual and other seasonal temperature showed significant rising trend .However , temperature exhibited the-declining trend after 2007 .The precipitation in annual , summer and winter presented the increasing trend, but that inspring and autumnpresented the insignificant decreasing trend .The water surface evapo-ration presented the decrease trend in annual and the other three seasons except spring .The evaporation paradoxis obvious .The variation of runoff is generally in accordance with that of precipitation .Bothannual and seasonal runoff presented increasing trend whilerunoff in winter presented significant increasing trend.The correlation coefficientbetween runoff and precipitation is higher than 0.65.Therefore ,precipi-tation is a major driver of runoffvariation .It is necessary to pay sufficient attention to the impact of cli-mate change and especiallyprecipitationchange on water resources .