事故污染源目标分布函数中初始概率的确定方法

Method of determining original probability in target distribution function of accidental pollution sources

为解决流域事故性污染源搜索中"初始信息"主观性的难题,基于流域事故性污染源搜索的特点建立了非持久性污染物水质模型,以长江宜宾段为研究对象,采用现场采样室内试验的方式确定了该河段COD综合衰减系数,从而模拟了该河段各排污口在正常排污条件下的扩散浓度,通过与实际监测值的拟合,验证了模型的有效性。在此基础上,运用误差序列建立了获得事故污染源的初始概率的方法以及利用搜索行动对初始概率进行修正的方案,并实现了初始概率向后验概率转化,为流域事故性污染源搜索模型的目标分布函数的确定提供一种客观的科学方法。

Abstratc:To solute the subjective problem of original information in searching accidental pollution source in a basin, the paper set up water quality model of non-persistent pollutants based on the search charac -teristics of accidental pollution source .It took Yibin section of the Yangtze river as research object , and got the complex degradation coefficient of COD by the scene sampling and indoor experiment .It simulated the diffusion concentration of the sewage outfall in the river reach .Through fitting the actual monitoring value , the validity of this model is validate .On the above basis , it built a method of getting original prob-ability of accidental pollution sources by using error sequence and modified the original probability in search action .Therefore the original probability was transformed into posteriori probability .This result can provide an objective and scientific method for determining the target distribution function in the search model of accidental pollution sources in a basin .