海流兔河基流特征及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应分析

Analysis of baseflow characteristics and its responses to climatic change and human activities in Hailiutu River basin

基流是海流兔河流域地表径流的主要组成部分,是流域河流枯水期流量的重要来源,更是维护流域生态环境健康的基本保证。本文采用不同方法对海流兔河流域1957-2011年基流数据进行分析。基于流域水文及气象数据,应用双累积曲线法和SWAT模型分析流域基流对气候变化和人类活动的响应关系。结果表明:流域基流年内分配不均匀,夏季基流分配量普遍较少;基流年际变化整体呈现下降趋势,并分别于1968、1989和2001年发生突变。流域基流对人类活动的响应强于气候变化,人类活动是流域基流变化的主要因素,降雨是次要因素,气温是第3因素。

Baseflow is the main component of surface runoff and also an important source of river water flow during dry season in Hailiutu River basin , which is even the basic assurance for maintaining eco -environment healthy of watershed .The paper took different methods to analyze the baseflow data in Hai-liutu River basin from 1957 to 2011 .It studied the responses of baseflow to climatic change and human activities by applying double mass curve method and SWAT model in this basin based on hydrological and meteorological data .The results reveal that the distribution of baseflow is uneven in a year ,the baseflow in summer is generally less .The baseflow in fifferent years presented decreasing trend and took place mu-tation in 1968 , 1989 and 2001 respectively .The response of baseflow to human activities is stronger than that of climatic change .Human activities are the dominant factor that affects the change of basin base-flow, rainfall is the secondary factor and air temperature is the third factor .