新疆额尔齐斯河流域降水量变化特征及趋势分析

Variation characteristics and trend of precipitation in Irtysh River basin of Xinjiang

降水量研究对于干旱半干旱地区水资源的合理开发利用、生态环境的改善和灾害控制具有重要意义。为分析新疆额尔齐斯河流域降水量变化特征及其变化趋势,选取流域内富蕴、阿勒泰、哈巴河3个气象站1962-2013年实测月降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、复Morlet小波分析法、R/S分析法及相关水文统计方法进行研究。结果表明:额尔齐斯河流域内3个气象站年降水量均呈现出显著上升趋势,降雨变化倾向率分别为17.91、17.47、17.37 mm/10a;流域年降水量呈现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯交替特征,富蕴、阿勒泰、哈巴河气象站主震荡周期分别为22、18、22 a;赫斯特指数表明未来额尔齐斯河流域年降水量总体上继续保持上升趋势,且其未来年份降水量增长趋势的程度为:富蕴>阿勒泰>哈巴河。

The research on rainfall has great significance for the rational development of water resources,the improvement of ecological environment and disaster control in arid and semi-arid areas. By use of the monthly precipitation data from three meteorological stations( Fuyun,Aletai,Habahe) in Irtysh River basin from 1962 to 2013,the paper took Mann-Kendall method,the Morlet wavelet analysis method,the R / S analysis method,and other hydrological statistics method to analyze the variation characteristics and trends of precipitation. The result shows that the annual precipitation presents a significant upward trend at the three stations. The annual precipitation has the periodic characteristics of wet and dry with various time scales. The main shock cycles at three stations are 22 a,18a,22arespectively; Hurst values show that the precipitation at three stations will have a overall upward trend in the future. The degree reorder of increase trend of annual rainfall from large to small is Fuyun,Aletai and Habahe.