考虑大孔隙下渗的HBV模型及其在山洪预报中的应用

Applicability of the HBV model in flash flood forecasting by considering the infiltration of macropore

小流域山洪预报一直是水文学研究的热点和难点问题之一。考虑到土壤大孔隙在径流形成过程中的重要作用,采用变动面积法为HBV模型增添大孔隙模块,并以黄泥庄小流域为研究区,使用改进后的HBV模型模拟分析了2010-2015年间6次洪水事件。结果表明:改进后的HBV模型在黄泥庄流域洪水模拟中模拟效果较好,预报精度均在乙级以上,可用于模拟类似小流域短历时高强度的洪水,从而为淮河流域上游山区的防汛决策提供重要参考。

The flash flood forecasting in small basin is one of the hot and difficult topics in hydrology research.Given the important effect of the soil macropore in runoff formation process,a macropore flow module was added in the HBV model via variable area approach.A case study containing six flood events was operated within Huangnizhuang Basin using the improved HBV model during 2010 and 2015.The results showed that the improved HBV model performs well in Huangnizhuang Basin with the forecast accuracy of the six flood events is grade B or higher,which indicates that the improved HBV model is suitable for the similar basin characterized by short-lived high intensity flash flood.This study can also provide important reference for mountainous basins flood control decision over the upper Huaihe River.