基于情景模拟的河南省淮河流域旱涝灾害危险性评价

Risk assessment of drought and flood disaster in Huaihe river basin of Henan Province based on scenario simulation

为综合评价河南省淮河流域各地区发生干旱和洪涝灾害的危险性,本文选取降雨强度作为致灾因子,高程、坡度、河流、土壤湿度作为孕灾因子,以地面点多年降水数据和遥感数据为基础,借助GIS技术,反演各因子,再基于情景模拟理论,采用层次分析法和综合指数法定量化分析研究区发生干旱和洪涝灾害的危险性分布图,旱涝叠加后综合评价流域受灾危险性特征。结果表明:情景模拟和旱涝综合能够直观全面地反映区域旱涝灾害危险性分布情况;研究区旱涝灾害危险性随着灾害发生概率的增加而降低;受降水及河网影响,驻马店市、漯河市旱涝灾害均很严重,与历史灾情基本吻合。研究结果可供区域旱涝灾害危险性评价参考借鉴。

In order to comprehensively evaluate the risk of drought and flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin of Henan Province,this paper select rainfall intensity as the hazard factor,elevation,slope,river and soil moisture as the disaster-pregnant factors,and used years of precipitation data and remote sensing data to inverse the factors based on GIS technology.Then obtain the risk distribution of drought and floods in the study area with the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Composite Index method.Finally,overlay analysis of drought and floods to assess the synthetic risk characteristics of the basin.The results show that scenario simulation and drought-flood synthesize method can reflect drought and flood risk distribution directly and comprehensively;the higher occurrence frequency of drought and flood disaster the lower risk;the drought and floods risk of Zhumadian City and Luohe City are very serious influenced by precipitation and river network factor,this result is consistent with the historical disaster situation.The results can be used for the risk assessment of drought and flood hazard in the regional research.