摘要
应用回归分析法和SLEUTH模型,对2010~2016年兰州市城市发展空间分布特征及其影响因素进行分析,预测了未来15年城市空间发展新布局。结果表明:SLEUTH模型在预测城市扩展形态一致性程度较好,但对政策干预下导致的"蛙跳式"城市扩展格局无法准确模拟;影响兰州市城市空间分布的因素由主到次依次为人均道路面积、第二产业产值变化、人口密度变化、第三产业产值变化、第一产业产值变化。
The reglession analysis and SLEUTH model were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and its influence factorsin in Lanzhou City.We predict the new layout of urban space development in the next 15 years.The results show that the SLEUTH model is good at predicting the consistency of urban expansion patterns,but it cannot accurately simulate the"leaf-frog"urban expansion pattern resulting from policy intervention.The factors affecting the urban spatial distribution of Lanzhou City are,from primary to secondary,the per capita road area,the change in the output value of the secondary industry,the change in the population density,the change in the output value of the tertiary industry,the change in the output value of the primary industry.
关键词
城市
空间扩展
演变
调控
urban
space extension
evolution
regulation
