定性访谈与乘数法相结合估计武汉市2015年男男性行为者规模

Qualitative interview in combination with multiplier method to estimate the size of men who have sex with men in Wuhan in 2015

目的调查估计武汉市男男性行为者(MSM)的规模,为武汉市MSM的艾滋病(AIDS)疫情估计和防治提供依据。方法定性访谈与乘数法相结合。利用定性访谈综合了解影响乘数法应用的因素,再利用乘数法对MSM进行规模估计。结果通过与MSM定性访谈了解到MSM的主要活动场所为公园类、酒吧类和浴池类3类场所。公园类场所MSM活动人数主要受到季节和天气的影响,一般夏季和天气晴朗时人数较多,一天之中中午和下午人流量最多。酒吧和浴池主要受节假日的影响,通常周末客流量最多。酒吧晚上10点后客流量最大,浴池晚上8点后客流量最大。定性访谈与乘数法相结合估计2015年武汉市MSM规模数为49 935人(95%可信区间:43 794～57 859),占武汉市15～49岁男性人口数的2.22%(49 935/2 244 339)。结论定性访谈与乘数法相结合可较好估计武汉市MSM的规模。

Objective To investigate and estimate the size of men who have sex with men(MSM)in Wuhan,so as to understand the scope of AIDS epidemic and to provide evidence for AIDS prevention and control among MSM in Wuhan.Methods Multiplier method was employed in this study in combination with qualitative interview,to learn about factors affecting the application of multiplier methods,and to estimate the size of MSM population.Results Qualitative interview with MSM showed that parks,bars and public baths were the three major places of MSM.The number of MSM in parks was mainly affected by the seasons and the weather.Generally,in summer and sunny days,the number of MSM in parks was larger,with the largest flow of MSM at noon and in the afternoon of a day.Numbers of MSM who visited bars and public baths were mainly affected by holidays and usually had the largest flow of MSM on weekends.The bars had the largest flow of MSM after 10 p.m.and the public baths had the largest flow of MSM after 8 p.m.The size of MSM was estimated as 49 935(95%CI:43794,57859)by multiplier method in combination with qualitative interview,accounting for 2.22%(49 935/2 244 339)of the male population aged 15-49 in Wuhan in 2015.Conclusion The size of MSM population in Wuhan is well estimated by qualitative interview in combination with multiplier method.