安徽省地震成组活动特征及其危险性分析

Analysis about features of seismic group activity and the risk in Anhui province

利用强震组增益P、强震组效能R和强震组分布变异值S等3种指标,对安徽省1300年以来地震成组活动的客观性进行了检验,结果显示,该区不同时段、不同震级的地震活动呈现不同的特征和分布类型;同时,用b值方法分析了目前地震活动状态;在此基础上,应用泊松模型对未来地震趋势进行了概率预测。

In this paper, the objectivity of seismic group activity since 1300 in Anhui province has been tested using seismic grouping gain (P value), sufficiency (R value) and distribution variation parameter (S value). The result shows that there are different seismic activity features and distribution types in the different periods of time and magnitude ranges. At the same time, present seismic activity situation is analyzed with the b-value method. On this condition, the future seismic activity trend has been predicated, applying Poisson distribution model.